- First, check out this website.
- Then check out this clever "smallif" example: I have 10 people scattered throughout column A (100 times). Each person has several different values listed in column B. I want to rank the values for each person from smallest to largest. Try this: {=SMALL(IF($A$1:$A$100="John",$B$1:$B$100),1)}. Note that the brackets {} are automatically inserted by pressing CNTRL+SHIFT+ENTER at the end of your formula. Repeat this formula as many times as you need, entering ,2, 3, 4, 5, ..., n for as many values as you have (in order to rank them from 1 to n)
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
Smallif
I just learned a handy Excel trick to create just about any type of conditional formula. For context, right now Excel offers pre-built formulas that lets you sum up an array given a specific criteria (sum up all of column B whenever its value in Column A = Texas). Excel calls this "sumif." But what if you want to find the minimum, maximum, or rank given a specific criteria?
Monday, June 08, 2009
Jude Across the Pond (pt 2)
More photos! Stories coming soon:
Jude in the shoebox-sized bassinet on the British Airways flight to London (the leg of the trip without Rachel).
British Museum
Mummies!
High Tea at Fortnum and Masons
Put me to bed! I'm so tired!
Jude in the shoebox-sized bassinet on the British Airways flight to London (the leg of the trip without Rachel).
British Museum
Mummies!
High Tea at Fortnum and Masons
Put me to bed! I'm so tired!
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
Jude Across the Pond (pt 1)
When Rachel’s two-week business trip to London was confirmed, we agreed that I would watch Jude in Tacoma with Grandma’s help (Linda), and then fly to London with Jude for the second week. The first week was hard on Rachel, but with the help of Skype we were able to see each other and chat as if we were in the next room. Linda helped tremendously, and the party grew even bigger when Jeanne and Heather came up the road to stay for a few days. During that first week, I (Robert) worked during the day and took over Jude’s evening and night duties that included playing, feeding, changing, reading, putting to sleep, and feeding again every 4-6 hours. Looking back, I have to say that my one on one time with Jude was probably the best time I’ve had with the little guy so far in his brief life. I loved learning how to listen to him and understanding more of his personality. He likes to be read to each night – I read him two books, one of which is always the same. I noticed that each night he leaned forward to touch the same small picture in the book. And he learned too! He learned that I don’t pick him up after I put him to bed, so there’s no use fussing (I use the 15 minute fuss rule … he’s out before he reaches 15 minutes).
On Friday afternoon, Linda, Jude and I left for the airport – Linda to return to Medford, and Jude and me to London. With the exception of a nasty old man sitting next to us (and I know who you are! I looked you up on LinkedIn) the flight to London went great. Jude slept and played the entire time. When we arrived in London, the three of us (with Rachel now) spent the rest of the day touring around the city rather than sleeping. By the time night arrived, Jude was more than ready to sleep for the night. And just like that – Jude was acclimated to Greenwich Mean Time (+8 hours from Seattle).
Here are a few pictures we took during that initial 3 day weekend (Memorial Day in the US = random “Bank Holiday” in UK):
Rachel & Jude at Tower of London (it's more than just a tower)
Rob and Jude at Tower Bridge (insured as a boat by Lloyds of London)
Jude making faces in random park to the side of Parliament
Rachel and Jude across the River Thames
Rachel and Jude with Parliament
Rachel and Jude with Parliament and Big Ben
Jude, Rob and Ben
Jude attacking Rachel
Rachel and Jude at Harrods
Random cute Jude photo
Rachel and Jude at Buckingham Palace
On Friday afternoon, Linda, Jude and I left for the airport – Linda to return to Medford, and Jude and me to London. With the exception of a nasty old man sitting next to us (and I know who you are! I looked you up on LinkedIn) the flight to London went great. Jude slept and played the entire time. When we arrived in London, the three of us (with Rachel now) spent the rest of the day touring around the city rather than sleeping. By the time night arrived, Jude was more than ready to sleep for the night. And just like that – Jude was acclimated to Greenwich Mean Time (+8 hours from Seattle).
Here are a few pictures we took during that initial 3 day weekend (Memorial Day in the US = random “Bank Holiday” in UK):
Rachel & Jude at Tower of London (it's more than just a tower)
Rob and Jude at Tower Bridge (insured as a boat by Lloyds of London)
Jude making faces in random park to the side of Parliament
Rachel and Jude across the River Thames
Rachel and Jude with Parliament
Rachel and Jude with Parliament and Big Ben
Jude, Rob and Ben
Jude attacking Rachel
Rachel and Jude at Harrods
Random cute Jude photo
Rachel and Jude at Buckingham Palace
Monday, May 11, 2009
Road Tripping with Jude
Though just 8 months old, Jude has visited national parks, traveled back and forth to Portland on countless occasions, driven with his parents to Medford, and even flown to Los Angeles to visit the grandparents. Below are a few photos of Jude's travel adventures:
Trip to Olympic National Park with Katherine and Jerrod. Note to potential visitors, it's still snowy there in April / May. We didn't know that, and you could tell that half of the other people didn't know that either. The other half were trekking up to the nearby peaks on their snow shoes and skis.
Jude: loving the crisp mountain air!
Jerrod & Katherine visiting from Texas thanks in part to Southwest Airlines' cheap fares (Jerrod: it took 8 hours. I might as well have flown to Europe)
In retrospect, we should have known to check the weather conditions, but at the time we all wanted an adventure. But wow, did it get snowy very quickly! We practically turned the corner and suddenly it went from dry and crisp to 10 ft snow drifts and foggy.
Trip to Southern California. Jude and parents visited the Mardock side living in Springville / Porterville area. We like being in the same time zone, but we're really excited that they're moving to Austin, TX - surprisingly faster to get to Austin than flying to Burbank and driving 3 hours north to Springville.
Grandpa and Jude sharing a moment
Trip to Medford, Oregon. Well, no pictures here, unfortunately, but Medford isn't going anywhere. We visited the Bellamy side, with Josh coming up from Sacramento for a fun action-packed weekend. I got to see the new Star Trek film in an actual movie theater! Haven't been to one of those in over 8 months.
Random non-Medford photo: mirrors and hands are two of Jude's favorite things
Jude and his red socks, getting ready for dinner
Trip to Olympic National Park with Katherine and Jerrod. Note to potential visitors, it's still snowy there in April / May. We didn't know that, and you could tell that half of the other people didn't know that either. The other half were trekking up to the nearby peaks on their snow shoes and skis.
Jude: loving the crisp mountain air!
Jerrod & Katherine visiting from Texas thanks in part to Southwest Airlines' cheap fares (Jerrod: it took 8 hours. I might as well have flown to Europe)
In retrospect, we should have known to check the weather conditions, but at the time we all wanted an adventure. But wow, did it get snowy very quickly! We practically turned the corner and suddenly it went from dry and crisp to 10 ft snow drifts and foggy.
Trip to Southern California. Jude and parents visited the Mardock side living in Springville / Porterville area. We like being in the same time zone, but we're really excited that they're moving to Austin, TX - surprisingly faster to get to Austin than flying to Burbank and driving 3 hours north to Springville.
Grandpa and Jude sharing a moment
Trip to Medford, Oregon. Well, no pictures here, unfortunately, but Medford isn't going anywhere. We visited the Bellamy side, with Josh coming up from Sacramento for a fun action-packed weekend. I got to see the new Star Trek film in an actual movie theater! Haven't been to one of those in over 8 months.
Random non-Medford photo: mirrors and hands are two of Jude's favorite things
Jude and his red socks, getting ready for dinner
Thursday, April 30, 2009
CDSs Part 3: Hitting the Jackpot with a GM Bankruptcy
If GM declares chapter 11 bankruptcy, debt holders may actually be the big winners. Here is some background:
Bucking the trend, GM's imminent bankruptcy will likely create financial ripples from Main Street back to Wall Street. While a bankruptcy will arguably be good for viability and vitality of the company itself (it's a 100 year old has-been saddled with billions of dollars worth of decades-old moribund capital infrastructure and entitlement expenditures, in dire need of a "new beginning") it will be negative to a host of others including, but lot limited to:
a) semi-skilled, high school educated UAW workers with decades-long expectations of earning MBA or PhD level incomes
b) stock holders who have already seen their investments plummet 91% in just the last year (who will then see it plummet an incremental 100%)
c) executives at GM whose compensations were ceremonially set to $1 on the condition that if they could turn the company around they could stand to earn tens or hundreds of millions (if they could avoid bankruptcy).
d) creditors and bondholders who didn't have any form of bankruptcy insurance.
Creditors and bondholders who did have some form of bankruptcy insurance, on the other hand, just won the jackpot.
Oh yes, I’m talking about credit default swaps. That $39 Trillion butt-hole of a derivative that keeps popping its head up whenever a company goes bankrupt. Keep in mind that when CDSs were being invented just 10 years ago, the world economy was at the beginning of its 8-year winning streak. CDSs were an insurance policy against the ever-so-miniscule chance that any legitimate company could ever go bankrupt. Brokers, dealers, traders, and other financial ‘innovators' had no interest in scenario planning against “what are the implications of CDSs in a recessionary environment,” because by the time such a reality presented itself, they would be long gone, living back in their suburban Main Street high school home towns in the big 6 bedroom track house with 3 cars and a trust fund for their two children.
Had such financial innovators scenario planned about CDSs in a recessionary environment, and had they any financial stake in such a possibility, they may have put safeguards into the systems. Such as (in the context of GM):
1) If GM goes bankrupt, just those debt holders who actually own the debt can buy CDSs to cover their position.
2) If the wife, neighbors or golf buddy of debt holder wants to get some of that CDS insurance coverage on GM too, they can’t. They can’t because they don’t own the debt. That would be silly. That would be like this author getting a life insurance policy on Fidel Castro or any other random citizen of this planet.
3) Likewise, if a GM debt holder wants to cover their position with a CDS, they can’t double, triple, quadruple, or quintuple their insurance coverage (as in, “I just lost $1 million when GM went bankrupt, but it’s all good because AIG just paid me $300 million on my GM credit default swaps when it went bankrupt.”)
Here are a couple of broken scenarios that may play out in the next couple of months:
GM will declare bankruptcy – a quick and clean bankruptcy that will clean off its books and kick-start it into the new century (because they are seriously stuck in the 1990s). --> Many bond-holders will feign disappointment at the hand they had been given, but secretly they will be giddy that they hit the jackpot. Their debt had been worthless for years by now, but the insurance on that debt is golden! --> Financial repercussions as AIG (you and me), Merrill Lynch (Bank of America), Barclays, and Morgan Stanley start paying out billions of dollars in CDSs. What next? It gets fuzzy since the banks are already teetering on the brink of collapse and that risk is mostly baked into their current market value ... so "how much" of a shock this will be to them is unclear. The US government may demand that anyone due to receive cash from an AIG CDS take a percent of the money due. But that may result in hefty lawsuits from an eager cadre of lawyers who haven't been doing too well in these difficult economic times either.
I digress ... at any rate, be on the lookout for people getting excited at a GM bankruptcy, because they just won the jackpot. I just said that in a really long roundabout way.
Bucking the trend, GM's imminent bankruptcy will likely create financial ripples from Main Street back to Wall Street. While a bankruptcy will arguably be good for viability and vitality of the company itself (it's a 100 year old has-been saddled with billions of dollars worth of decades-old moribund capital infrastructure and entitlement expenditures, in dire need of a "new beginning") it will be negative to a host of others including, but lot limited to:
a) semi-skilled, high school educated UAW workers with decades-long expectations of earning MBA or PhD level incomes
b) stock holders who have already seen their investments plummet 91% in just the last year (who will then see it plummet an incremental 100%)
c) executives at GM whose compensations were ceremonially set to $1 on the condition that if they could turn the company around they could stand to earn tens or hundreds of millions (if they could avoid bankruptcy).
d) creditors and bondholders who didn't have any form of bankruptcy insurance.
Creditors and bondholders who did have some form of bankruptcy insurance, on the other hand, just won the jackpot.
Oh yes, I’m talking about credit default swaps. That $39 Trillion butt-hole of a derivative that keeps popping its head up whenever a company goes bankrupt. Keep in mind that when CDSs were being invented just 10 years ago, the world economy was at the beginning of its 8-year winning streak. CDSs were an insurance policy against the ever-so-miniscule chance that any legitimate company could ever go bankrupt. Brokers, dealers, traders, and other financial ‘innovators' had no interest in scenario planning against “what are the implications of CDSs in a recessionary environment,” because by the time such a reality presented itself, they would be long gone, living back in their suburban Main Street high school home towns in the big 6 bedroom track house with 3 cars and a trust fund for their two children.
Had such financial innovators scenario planned about CDSs in a recessionary environment, and had they any financial stake in such a possibility, they may have put safeguards into the systems. Such as (in the context of GM):
1) If GM goes bankrupt, just those debt holders who actually own the debt can buy CDSs to cover their position.
2) If the wife, neighbors or golf buddy of debt holder wants to get some of that CDS insurance coverage on GM too, they can’t. They can’t because they don’t own the debt. That would be silly. That would be like this author getting a life insurance policy on Fidel Castro or any other random citizen of this planet.
3) Likewise, if a GM debt holder wants to cover their position with a CDS, they can’t double, triple, quadruple, or quintuple their insurance coverage (as in, “I just lost $1 million when GM went bankrupt, but it’s all good because AIG just paid me $300 million on my GM credit default swaps when it went bankrupt.”)
Here are a couple of broken scenarios that may play out in the next couple of months:
GM will declare bankruptcy – a quick and clean bankruptcy that will clean off its books and kick-start it into the new century (because they are seriously stuck in the 1990s). --> Many bond-holders will feign disappointment at the hand they had been given, but secretly they will be giddy that they hit the jackpot. Their debt had been worthless for years by now, but the insurance on that debt is golden! --> Financial repercussions as AIG (you and me), Merrill Lynch (Bank of America), Barclays, and Morgan Stanley start paying out billions of dollars in CDSs. What next? It gets fuzzy since the banks are already teetering on the brink of collapse and that risk is mostly baked into their current market value ... so "how much" of a shock this will be to them is unclear. The US government may demand that anyone due to receive cash from an AIG CDS take a percent of the money due. But that may result in hefty lawsuits from an eager cadre of lawyers who haven't been doing too well in these difficult economic times either.
I digress ... at any rate, be on the lookout for people getting excited at a GM bankruptcy, because they just won the jackpot. I just said that in a really long roundabout way.
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Student Loan Interest Rates = Diabolical Scheme
Help me find the error in this Socratic logic:
A: an "interest rate" = risk free component + risk component*
B: student loans are risk free**
C: therefore, student loan interest rates should be 0%***
*"risk free" = something like us treasury notes, currently at about 0.4% (that is, under 1%)
** i) only by death or by full payment can a student loan be erased. ii) student loans are the only type of loan that cannot be absolved through bankruptcy. iii) student loan lenders have the power to garnish wages through collaboration with the us treasury department
***or more accurately, 0% above the risk free rate, which is about 0.4% right now.
A: an "interest rate" = risk free component + risk component*
B: student loans are risk free**
C: therefore, student loan interest rates should be 0%***
*"risk free" = something like us treasury notes, currently at about 0.4% (that is, under 1%)
** i) only by death or by full payment can a student loan be erased. ii) student loans are the only type of loan that cannot be absolved through bankruptcy. iii) student loan lenders have the power to garnish wages through collaboration with the us treasury department
***or more accurately, 0% above the risk free rate, which is about 0.4% right now.
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Double Chocolate Chip Caramel Pecan Cookie Recipe
I've lost this recipe several times, so I'm eternalizing it here. I can't claim to have created it, just to have popularized it.
Mix in separate bowls the following -
Dry:
1 1/4 cup flour
1/2 tsp baking powder
1/4 tsp salt
Wet:
3/4 cup sugar
1/4 cup brown sugar
1 cube butter
1/3 cup cocoa powder
1 tsp vanilla
1 egg
**mix in mixer**
1 cup chocolate chunks or chocolate chips
1 cup nuts (recommend walnuts, pecans, or almonds)
1/2 - 3/4 cup caramel cubes cut up into quarters
**mix in mixer**
**Add dry ingredients, mix some more**
**spoon onto greased pan, bake @ 350 F for 10 minutes**
Mix in separate bowls the following -
Dry:
1 1/4 cup flour
1/2 tsp baking powder
1/4 tsp salt
Wet:
3/4 cup sugar
1/4 cup brown sugar
1 cube butter
1/3 cup cocoa powder
1 tsp vanilla
1 egg
**mix in mixer**
1 cup chocolate chunks or chocolate chips
1 cup nuts (recommend walnuts, pecans, or almonds)
1/2 - 3/4 cup caramel cubes cut up into quarters
**mix in mixer**
**Add dry ingredients, mix some more**
**spoon onto greased pan, bake @ 350 F for 10 minutes**
Monday, March 30, 2009
Jude loves the sunshine
Too bad we live in Seattle...
Living in Seattle:
Pro - REI headquarters (thus the adorable vest)
Con - rains a lot (but everything is green)
Living in Seattle:
Pro - REI headquarters (thus the adorable vest)
Con - rains a lot (but everything is green)
Monday, March 16, 2009
No More Peas Please
I hate peas and I'm not afraid to show it.
But I can't get enough of that Jumperoo! Dang, it's fun!
Tuesday, March 03, 2009
March 3, 2009: The Market Reaches Bottom
I hope I'm right, I hope I'm right! But I've gotta stick to my guns, after forecasting on October 10th that we would know when the bottom hit when the NYSE dropped to around 6800 (at the time it was at 8400). It may seem like all is hopeless right now, but I for one am a little optimistic that securities are now priced to buy.
Wow, maybe it's March 5th. Who knew GM and C would both essentially fail on the same day...
Wow, maybe it's March 5th. Who knew GM and C would both essentially fail on the same day...
Friday, February 27, 2009
Would You Rather...
GK and I were discussing what would be better: 1) to be raised by wolves, or 2) to be raised by gorillas.
- Raised by wolves (like Mowgli from the Jungle Book): greater possibility of being hastily eaten.
- Raised by gorillas (like Tarzan): greater possibility of having your arms torn out and face bitten off.
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Volcano Monitoring
Friday, February 13, 2009
Things to do in Houston (and Austin)
After a colleague of mine in Seattle told us he was leaving for a job in Houston, my first reaction wasn't "oh I'm so sad to see you go," but "oh, how cool!" Then I discovered some of my family may be moving to Austin. My instinct wasn't, "oh how sad, your moving 1000 miles farther away," but "awesome! I can't wait to visit ya'll!" Here are a few of our favorite places in Houston (and Austin). I'm going to edit this in a couple of days to incorporate a list that Katherine B gave me. If you have anything to add, let me know and I'll add it as well:
(Note - Rachel and I lived "in the loop." There should rarely be a reason to leave the inner loop)
Jog or walk, or just enjoy: Memorial Park, Hermann Park, Rice University
Our favorite pizza places: Collina's (the best), Star Pizza (what other people think is the best … very deep dish)
Tips about University Village: Enjoy discovering the restaurants, they're eclectic and very interesting. Black Walnut Café (Veggi, NW-style food), Mi Luna (Great tapas), Hungry's Bistro (Great brunch, Mediterranean, humus), Benjy's Restaurant (I forgot… maybe I liked the happy hour and fancy cocktails), Yum Yum Cha (Cantonese, dumplings, hole-in-the-wall place), Some other café on the corner of Rice and Chaucer (across the streat from Hungry's Bistro) is great, veggi, NW-style food, great deserts, Goode Company BBQ
Best supermarket in the world: Central Market in Highland Village. Like Whole Foods but much, much better
Tips about the big exciting mass of restaurants between Highland Village and Montrose (on a map, between Wesleyan, Montrose, above I-59): Amy's Ice Cream (classic, a must go place. Try Guinness Ice Cream or sometimes Avocado ice cream), Freebird Burrito (another TX classic place, a yuppie version of Chipotle, yes they have veggi), Hobbit Café (Seriously, this is an earthy place taken right out of a Tolkien novel), O Porto (Portugese, Tapas, hole-in-the-wall place), PF Changs in Highland Village (Sadly, the best Chinese place we found), Lupe Tortilla (Oh, how we miss Lupe… the best tortillas, plus excellent margaritas, very popular), Luling's BBQ (A great authentic experience), Ragin Cajun (A wonderful and bizarre cajun restaurant, one of those places with LSU paraphernalia and license plates adorning the walls), Empire Café (Great coffee, veggi, brunch, conversational place), Katz's Deli (Really good, one of the best kosher deli's you'll find anywhere in the country), Starbucks in River Oaks (See the Starbucks across the street from the Starbucks on the corner of Shephard and Gray), Teala's Mexican & Tila's Bistro (Both sound the same, both in same area of River Oaks, both really good), Chuy's Mexican (An insanely popular place, especially for the UT alumns), Taco Milagro (A very, very popular place on Thursday afternoon happy hour time, big patio, a great place to meet people. It's actually nicer than it sounds… it isn't a "taco cart" or anything), Pappas, Seafood, Pappas BBQ, etc… Anything from the Pappas people (See the giant armadillo)
Galleria area: The mall itself is friggin huge, with lots of great shopping, but alas it has become a hangout for the punk yuts (youths), America's restaurant (Very nice, expensive), McCormick and Schmicks (Yey! $2 happy hour food menu!), Just drive around and be amazed at the commercial activity going on. You'll find something interesting.
Kemah: A tourist trap, nonetheless, a great selection of seafood places. Go to the original Landry's. Get a water view and watch the power boats go through the canal.
Miscellaneous: Houston's Restaurant (on Kirby), Carisma $4 Car wash (on Kirby. Seriously I miss Houston just because of this place, near the corner of Kirby and Bissonnet), Make a friend who has a beach house in Galveston, Downtown - Market Square historic area, good bars… Flying Saucer bar. Tunnels in downtown Houston (A strange sight to see all of downtown scurrying around underground), Drive around River Oaks at Christmas (look at Christmas lights), Go to San Jacinto Monument (Even though it is sort of silly, it is higher than the Washington Monument. A Texas Thing)
Day Trips: Drive to College Station (Aggie Land), go wine tasting, visit the 1st G Bush presidential library (surprisingly interesting and interactive), go to the Dixie Chicken (a nasty dive of a place), Drive to Fredericksburg and surrounding areas (really fun, gem of a place pleasant wine country)
Austin favorites: Trudy's (mexican, great margaritas, UT hangout), Kerby Lane Café (Best breakfast in Texas (we think), great pancakes), Mozart’s Café (Not good coffee, but a really great hangout, good deserts, huge porch on the water), Bats under Congress St Bridge (Go in August or September. Better yet, go to the nasty TGIF, ask for a patio seat, and watch the bats while enjoying an ice tea and mozzarela sticks! (we've done that, it's surprisingly fun), Jog around Town Lake (between Lamar Blvd and Congres St … it's a great walking / jogging loop. Walk down the trail a little farther to see all the turtles!), Look at the turtles! They’re so cute!, Barton Creek Pool (natural pool, it's awesome), Barton Creek Greenbelt (I can't stress enough how cool this place is. It’s free. The creek is crystal clear, big swimming holes, fun little rapids, popular with the college crowd, you feel like you're in the wilderness, but you're still inside the city limits), Malaga tapas bar, Walk around UT (It's an impressive place, find something to do), and last but not least, Whole Foods World Headquarters (get lost in their giant flagship store)
(Note - Rachel and I lived "in the loop." There should rarely be a reason to leave the inner loop)
Jog or walk, or just enjoy: Memorial Park, Hermann Park, Rice University
Our favorite pizza places: Collina's (the best), Star Pizza (what other people think is the best … very deep dish)
Tips about University Village: Enjoy discovering the restaurants, they're eclectic and very interesting. Black Walnut Café (Veggi, NW-style food), Mi Luna (Great tapas), Hungry's Bistro (Great brunch, Mediterranean, humus), Benjy's Restaurant (I forgot… maybe I liked the happy hour and fancy cocktails), Yum Yum Cha (Cantonese, dumplings, hole-in-the-wall place), Some other café on the corner of Rice and Chaucer (across the streat from Hungry's Bistro) is great, veggi, NW-style food, great deserts, Goode Company BBQ
Best supermarket in the world: Central Market in Highland Village. Like Whole Foods but much, much better
Tips about the big exciting mass of restaurants between Highland Village and Montrose (on a map, between Wesleyan, Montrose, above I-59): Amy's Ice Cream (classic, a must go place. Try Guinness Ice Cream or sometimes Avocado ice cream), Freebird Burrito (another TX classic place, a yuppie version of Chipotle, yes they have veggi), Hobbit Café (Seriously, this is an earthy place taken right out of a Tolkien novel), O Porto (Portugese, Tapas, hole-in-the-wall place), PF Changs in Highland Village (Sadly, the best Chinese place we found), Lupe Tortilla (Oh, how we miss Lupe… the best tortillas, plus excellent margaritas, very popular), Luling's BBQ (A great authentic experience), Ragin Cajun (A wonderful and bizarre cajun restaurant, one of those places with LSU paraphernalia and license plates adorning the walls), Empire Café (Great coffee, veggi, brunch, conversational place), Katz's Deli (Really good, one of the best kosher deli's you'll find anywhere in the country), Starbucks in River Oaks (See the Starbucks across the street from the Starbucks on the corner of Shephard and Gray), Teala's Mexican & Tila's Bistro (Both sound the same, both in same area of River Oaks, both really good), Chuy's Mexican (An insanely popular place, especially for the UT alumns), Taco Milagro (A very, very popular place on Thursday afternoon happy hour time, big patio, a great place to meet people. It's actually nicer than it sounds… it isn't a "taco cart" or anything), Pappas, Seafood, Pappas BBQ, etc… Anything from the Pappas people (See the giant armadillo)
Galleria area: The mall itself is friggin huge, with lots of great shopping, but alas it has become a hangout for the punk yuts (youths), America's restaurant (Very nice, expensive), McCormick and Schmicks (Yey! $2 happy hour food menu!), Just drive around and be amazed at the commercial activity going on. You'll find something interesting.
Kemah: A tourist trap, nonetheless, a great selection of seafood places. Go to the original Landry's. Get a water view and watch the power boats go through the canal.
Miscellaneous: Houston's Restaurant (on Kirby), Carisma $4 Car wash (on Kirby. Seriously I miss Houston just because of this place, near the corner of Kirby and Bissonnet), Make a friend who has a beach house in Galveston, Downtown - Market Square historic area, good bars… Flying Saucer bar. Tunnels in downtown Houston (A strange sight to see all of downtown scurrying around underground), Drive around River Oaks at Christmas (look at Christmas lights), Go to San Jacinto Monument (Even though it is sort of silly, it is higher than the Washington Monument. A Texas Thing)
Day Trips: Drive to College Station (Aggie Land), go wine tasting, visit the 1st G Bush presidential library (surprisingly interesting and interactive), go to the Dixie Chicken (a nasty dive of a place), Drive to Fredericksburg and surrounding areas (really fun, gem of a place pleasant wine country)
Austin favorites: Trudy's (mexican, great margaritas, UT hangout), Kerby Lane Café (Best breakfast in Texas (we think), great pancakes), Mozart’s Café (Not good coffee, but a really great hangout, good deserts, huge porch on the water), Bats under Congress St Bridge (Go in August or September. Better yet, go to the nasty TGIF, ask for a patio seat, and watch the bats while enjoying an ice tea and mozzarela sticks! (we've done that, it's surprisingly fun), Jog around Town Lake (between Lamar Blvd and Congres St … it's a great walking / jogging loop. Walk down the trail a little farther to see all the turtles!), Look at the turtles! They’re so cute!, Barton Creek Pool (natural pool, it's awesome), Barton Creek Greenbelt (I can't stress enough how cool this place is. It’s free. The creek is crystal clear, big swimming holes, fun little rapids, popular with the college crowd, you feel like you're in the wilderness, but you're still inside the city limits), Malaga tapas bar, Walk around UT (It's an impressive place, find something to do), and last but not least, Whole Foods World Headquarters (get lost in their giant flagship store)
Tuesday, February 03, 2009
Where is the Stimulus Suggestion Box?
Here are my two suggestions for immediate relief for normal Americans:
1) Loss on sale of home tax benefit
Let home-owners who must sell their home in a down market realize some sort of tax benefit for their loss. Businesses can already do this, but pity the poor individual who currently gets the shaft. Home-owner decides “what the heck, I lost my job and can’t make my mortgage payments, and darned if I’m going to live in a $300,000 home that I bought for $350,000. I’m going to foreclose.” Let the tax benefit have some kind of carry-forward provision. “Homeowners can amortize the difference between house sale price and house purchase price over a 10 year period on their 1040”
2) Lock in student loan interest rates TWICE
Poor uneducated college graduates who think they’re doing the right thing by locking in their multiple variable interest rate student loans into one simple loan. It made sense to us all at the time. Instead of writing checks to Sallie Mae, Wells Fargo, Department of Education, and Perkins – all at different and high interest rates – I can just write one check to Department of Education and lock in a rate at 5.5%. Wow, 5.5% is an all time low, this is great! But fastforward 7 years. You still owe tens of thousands of dollars. In fact it feels like you’re not making a dent in your loans. By now that all time low 5.5% is now down to 2%. That could have saved you $50,000 or $100,000 on the life of your loan. “If only I could have seen the future,” you cry. “I would have waited seven years, writing 5 checks every month, and then locked in my student loans…” Again, if I were a business, I could swap rates and lock in rates an infinite number of times. But Uncle Sam has poor uneducated college graduates in a vice grip. Squeezing interest out of us 5.5% annually and mocking our myopic decisions to lock in our rates soon after we graduated.
I’m not sure if I actually made the suggestion in there, but I think you get the point. Do you have any other great ideas that Obama should bring forward that aren’t being talked about in the press? Ideas must make an immediate impact on normal people.
1) Loss on sale of home tax benefit
Let home-owners who must sell their home in a down market realize some sort of tax benefit for their loss. Businesses can already do this, but pity the poor individual who currently gets the shaft. Home-owner decides “what the heck, I lost my job and can’t make my mortgage payments, and darned if I’m going to live in a $300,000 home that I bought for $350,000. I’m going to foreclose.” Let the tax benefit have some kind of carry-forward provision. “Homeowners can amortize the difference between house sale price and house purchase price over a 10 year period on their 1040”
2) Lock in student loan interest rates TWICE
Poor uneducated college graduates who think they’re doing the right thing by locking in their multiple variable interest rate student loans into one simple loan. It made sense to us all at the time. Instead of writing checks to Sallie Mae, Wells Fargo, Department of Education, and Perkins – all at different and high interest rates – I can just write one check to Department of Education and lock in a rate at 5.5%. Wow, 5.5% is an all time low, this is great! But fastforward 7 years. You still owe tens of thousands of dollars. In fact it feels like you’re not making a dent in your loans. By now that all time low 5.5% is now down to 2%. That could have saved you $50,000 or $100,000 on the life of your loan. “If only I could have seen the future,” you cry. “I would have waited seven years, writing 5 checks every month, and then locked in my student loans…” Again, if I were a business, I could swap rates and lock in rates an infinite number of times. But Uncle Sam has poor uneducated college graduates in a vice grip. Squeezing interest out of us 5.5% annually and mocking our myopic decisions to lock in our rates soon after we graduated.
I’m not sure if I actually made the suggestion in there, but I think you get the point. Do you have any other great ideas that Obama should bring forward that aren’t being talked about in the press? Ideas must make an immediate impact on normal people.
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Why Blogging is Better than Twittering
I may break down and sign up for a Twitter account (a text-message like microblog where you submit 1-2 sentence posts at a time, especially relevant in a time where more and more people have smart-phones). I do like the idea of keeping track with friends via tiny and non-committal pithy comments. But Twitter cannot take the place of the context, color, theme, and nouns verbs and pronouns that you find on a blog.
Fake Twitter example:
Rob posts: “Made it to Shasta. No chains req’d”
Josh responds: “I told you. Next time trust me”
Brian adds: “Ah, you’re both whiners”
Rob responds: “Almost got in accident, I’m okay”
Brian adds: “Ha ha, too funny, probably got a buzz from that nasty mermaid coffee”
Rob responds: “No, seriously, I almost died.”
Josh responds: “Come on guys, why can’t we all get along… We settle this over Halo”
Huh? What happened? Why did Rob go to Shasta? Was bad weather expected? He almost died? Wow! How!? Are other people coming to visit him at Shasta? Some lodge or cabin where you can plug in Halo? I need more info! All of these questions could be answered, with pictures, charts, and context, in a blog. The other day I looked back at a post about some random weekend trip we took to College Station and thought, aww, that was a fun weekend! But I’m sure if I had a Twitter account at the time, my post would have been something like, “In Aggieland, Whoop!” ... Well whoop-dee-doo! What happened?
If only we had a blog during our treks in Romania and China. There are so many stories worth writing about that you will never know:
1) The 14-hour “hunger train” trip to Iasi
2) The trip to Dracula’s Castle
3) Rob gets in a fight with a drunk 60-yr old farmer in a coffee shop
4) Spelunking in a cave
5) Train ride to Vienna just to visit the nearest Starbucks
If we had a blog, you could find out all about each of these crazy adventures. But if we had a Twitter account, our post would have simply been a bullet point, ie “In Vienna, Starbucks… finally!”
Fake Twitter example:
Rob posts: “Made it to Shasta. No chains req’d”
Josh responds: “I told you. Next time trust me”
Brian adds: “Ah, you’re both whiners”
Rob responds: “Almost got in accident, I’m okay”
Brian adds: “Ha ha, too funny, probably got a buzz from that nasty mermaid coffee”
Rob responds: “No, seriously, I almost died.”
Josh responds: “Come on guys, why can’t we all get along… We settle this over Halo”
Huh? What happened? Why did Rob go to Shasta? Was bad weather expected? He almost died? Wow! How!? Are other people coming to visit him at Shasta? Some lodge or cabin where you can plug in Halo? I need more info! All of these questions could be answered, with pictures, charts, and context, in a blog. The other day I looked back at a post about some random weekend trip we took to College Station and thought, aww, that was a fun weekend! But I’m sure if I had a Twitter account at the time, my post would have been something like, “In Aggieland, Whoop!” ... Well whoop-dee-doo! What happened?
If only we had a blog during our treks in Romania and China. There are so many stories worth writing about that you will never know:
1) The 14-hour “hunger train” trip to Iasi
2) The trip to Dracula’s Castle
3) Rob gets in a fight with a drunk 60-yr old farmer in a coffee shop
4) Spelunking in a cave
5) Train ride to Vienna just to visit the nearest Starbucks
If we had a blog, you could find out all about each of these crazy adventures. But if we had a Twitter account, our post would have simply been a bullet point, ie “In Vienna, Starbucks… finally!”
Monday, January 26, 2009
Compete or Become Irrelevant
As my younger brothers and sisters know, I’m way on board the education bandwagon. But my educational philosophy is not that, “every young adult, regardless of economic means, should attend college,” but that “education should be the means by which a young adult should do something to better society and their family… not merely their own selfish interests.” That last point is a little hot – but it is true in the context that children can learn to love and be successful in many skills, trades, and careers if given guidance by their parents, family, school, or other outside influence. Success should not be measured by whether or not you graduate from a 4-year college. I know too many 4-yr college graduates who have $80,000 in loans and no skills. Success should be measured by whether your contribution to society is “net positive.” A 4-year education is not the answer. The answer is acquisition of the skills and experiential tools required to compete in a global economy and bring about positive change in your community; whether those skills are learned via college or trade school, or apprenticeship, or service to the country, etc.
“We had more sports exercise majors graduate than electrical engineering grads last year. If you want to be the massage capital of the world you’re well on the way.” (GE CEO Jeff Immelt to the US government)
I imagine the conversations and rationalizations parents must have with their children, “You must go to college because that's the expected thing to do… I don’t care what you do there, as long as you graduate. A BA in Sports Exercise? Fine. BA in Counseling? Fine. As long as you graduate.” But this thought process is the wrong algorithm. It’s not about what the child thinks is fun, it’s about what is going to advance the child’s skills and marketability in 2009 and beyond. Apart from "fun" are things like "gratifying" and "worthwhile."
Here’s an interesting read from Norman Augustine, the retired CEO of Lockheed Martin. It discusses America’s competitiveness, or lack thereof. It’s easy to read and chalked full of great one liners like, “Once upon a time, if you were born in America, you already won the lottery. That’s not the case for my grandchildren.” And, “When I compare our high schools to what I see when I’m traveling abroad, I’m terrified for our workforce of tomorrow.”
My homework assignment for anyone reading this who has kids is to think about the legacy their children will leave behind. What will they contribute? How will you have set them up for success in life? What lessons have you instilled in them. Tell your children, "do your homework because starving children in China want your job."
Fun, relavent articles to read on this subject:
They're Baaaaack!
Rethink the value of college
“We had more sports exercise majors graduate than electrical engineering grads last year. If you want to be the massage capital of the world you’re well on the way.” (GE CEO Jeff Immelt to the US government)
I imagine the conversations and rationalizations parents must have with their children, “You must go to college because that's the expected thing to do… I don’t care what you do there, as long as you graduate. A BA in Sports Exercise? Fine. BA in Counseling? Fine. As long as you graduate.” But this thought process is the wrong algorithm. It’s not about what the child thinks is fun, it’s about what is going to advance the child’s skills and marketability in 2009 and beyond. Apart from "fun" are things like "gratifying" and "worthwhile."
Here’s an interesting read from Norman Augustine, the retired CEO of Lockheed Martin. It discusses America’s competitiveness, or lack thereof. It’s easy to read and chalked full of great one liners like, “Once upon a time, if you were born in America, you already won the lottery. That’s not the case for my grandchildren.” And, “When I compare our high schools to what I see when I’m traveling abroad, I’m terrified for our workforce of tomorrow.”
My homework assignment for anyone reading this who has kids is to think about the legacy their children will leave behind. What will they contribute? How will you have set them up for success in life? What lessons have you instilled in them. Tell your children, "do your homework because starving children in China want your job."
Fun, relavent articles to read on this subject:
They're Baaaaack!
Rethink the value of college
Friday, January 23, 2009
A Few Firsts
Jude is experiencing new things these days. He tried his first rice cereal a few weeks ago. I think he liked it, but his expression may suggest otherwise. He rolled over from his stomach to his back. He also has his first cold. He has the cutest little cough. Poor little guy has been getting very frustrated about not being able to breathe through his nose.
Jude lovin' the rice cereal
Trying to figure out why we keep putting him on his stomach
Caught him in a smile
Jude lovin' the rice cereal
Trying to figure out why we keep putting him on his stomach
Caught him in a smile
Saturday, January 10, 2009
I Have A Voice
Ula-ula-ula, wa wa wa. That's how Jude says "Well hello there mom. You look nice today, as do these other large heads floating around me. Hello to you all. Hi there, you and you and you! I've discovered my tongue, haven't I? Yes I have!"
Friday, January 09, 2009
Vanilla Rooibos
A tasty new treat at the 'bux: vanilla rooibos tazo tea latte. They use whole leaf teas and a fancy silk satchel, topped by a healthy dose of steamed milk. I give 2 thumbs up. A great alternative to coffee :-)
Thursday, January 08, 2009
Seattle Boxed In
We can now chalk up one more extreme weather phenomenon to our life experiences: flooding. At the moment, Seattle is completely isolated from the rest of the country. I don't know if that is a good thing or not to the rest of the country, but on this side of the mountains, it is a strange feeling. I-5 to the south is closed due to floodwater flowing over it, and I-90 to the east is closed due to avalanche hazards. Every route east over the cascades is closed, as is the coastal route. In the meantime, Jeanne drove up to drop Andy and Joanne off at the Seattle airport a couple of days ago, and now she's stuck at our place. We're trying to make her stay as enjoyable as possible, but I'm sure she's homesick. It's a good thing Rachel and I don't need to go anywhere, because it isn't an option! This whole situation reminds me of "Seven Brides for Seven Brothers" where everyone gets snowed in until the passes clear...
Tuesday, January 06, 2009
Trans-Texas Corridor Killed
I'm thrilled to hear that as of today, the unnecessary, $200 billion dollar, private, foreign controlled, tolled, countryside eating, 50 year construction project that is the Trans-Texas Corridor has been killed. I wrote previously about this project a couple years ago (link here). The universally maligned boondoggle was a centerpiece of the universally maligned Governor Rick Perry. He must be smarting today that his own transportation department unilaterally killed the project.
The project would have spewed 4,000 miles of concrete onto the beautiful Texas countryside (ie, not widening the existing freeways, but building new ones in the countryside). It would have measured up to 4 football fields of concrete in width (visualize that). It would have been funded by tolling - ostensibly in perpetuity - with proceeds sent oversees to Cintra, a Spanish engineering firm.
If this sounds bad to you, you can see why no one wanted it built in the first place. Yes, expand roads. Yes, infrustructure improvement is needed. But not a new freeway system that rivals that of Brazil's, on top of the huge whopper of a freeway system Texas already has.
Political side note: In 2006, Rick Perry won a plurality of votes, not a majority. Texans from Brownsville to Amarillo had 4 viable candidates to chose from, not the typical 2. Kinky Friedman, Carole Keeton Strayhorn, some Democrat guy, and Rick Perry. All of the other 3 candidates ran as anti TTC and anti-Rick Perry. But in the end they beat up on each other and Rick Perry grinned his way back to the governor's mansion. For anyone who cares, I'm endorsing Kay Bailey Hutchison for governor in 2010.
The project would have spewed 4,000 miles of concrete onto the beautiful Texas countryside (ie, not widening the existing freeways, but building new ones in the countryside). It would have measured up to 4 football fields of concrete in width (visualize that). It would have been funded by tolling - ostensibly in perpetuity - with proceeds sent oversees to Cintra, a Spanish engineering firm.
If this sounds bad to you, you can see why no one wanted it built in the first place. Yes, expand roads. Yes, infrustructure improvement is needed. But not a new freeway system that rivals that of Brazil's, on top of the huge whopper of a freeway system Texas already has.
Political side note: In 2006, Rick Perry won a plurality of votes, not a majority. Texans from Brownsville to Amarillo had 4 viable candidates to chose from, not the typical 2. Kinky Friedman, Carole Keeton Strayhorn, some Democrat guy, and Rick Perry. All of the other 3 candidates ran as anti TTC and anti-Rick Perry. But in the end they beat up on each other and Rick Perry grinned his way back to the governor's mansion. For anyone who cares, I'm endorsing Kay Bailey Hutchison for governor in 2010.
Friday, January 02, 2009
My Chai Syrups
I'm writing from Bend, Oregon, where Andy, Chris and I just took a tour of My Chai's small, nascent production facility.
A few months ago, we visited Satellite Coffee in Tacoma. Pat (the owner of Satellite) is almost aggressively passionate about his coffee, syrups, and products. He told us about his syrup provider down in Bend, OR. We were interested and we bought a half-gallon of vanilla and split it with Chris and Jeanne. Fast forward to this weekend. We're in Bend, and Jeanne wants to find the syrup to buy more, but we forget the name. Plus we know it is a very small company and most likely isn't open to the public. Andy and Jeanne researched and called some local coffee shops to find My Chai's name and contact info. Andy gives them a call, and talks with Bapi himself (owner). Bapi is a pleasant fellow who asks, "how did you get this number? You're not a coffee shop? You just want to buy a couple bottles? Well, okay, I happen to be in the office today, but I'm only going to be here for another hour, so hurry over. We're not open to the public, so give me a call and I'll let you in the front door." We met Bapi - he showed us the original 5 gallon pot where he started crafting his chai and flavored syrups. Then he showed us the 20 gallon pot he used when production was in his apartment, then he showed us the industrial-size sink he wielded together to turn into a pot because 25 gallons was becoming too small. "I couldn't keep up. Once people discovered the syrup, they wanted more and more. I still can't keep up with demand. I sell to 400 stores and more every day, but look around - I have no inventory. Also, I refuse to take anyone's money, so all of this equipment and supplies are paid for in cash." He showed us the big 1000 (2000?) gallon drum that he's using now, and explains that he's moving into a bigger facility in Salem, OR where he can hopefully impress some bigger customers to start producing under their brand.
What a great little shop. My Chai is definitely going places, we're excited to have gotten a behind-the-scenes warehouse tour before it gets too popular. Bapi is a great guy. He's a former software engineer who, one day, decided he wanted to do something different. He's very excited about his product. He laughed when I told him where I work, but was very gracious!
A few months ago, we visited Satellite Coffee in Tacoma. Pat (the owner of Satellite) is almost aggressively passionate about his coffee, syrups, and products. He told us about his syrup provider down in Bend, OR. We were interested and we bought a half-gallon of vanilla and split it with Chris and Jeanne. Fast forward to this weekend. We're in Bend, and Jeanne wants to find the syrup to buy more, but we forget the name. Plus we know it is a very small company and most likely isn't open to the public. Andy and Jeanne researched and called some local coffee shops to find My Chai's name and contact info. Andy gives them a call, and talks with Bapi himself (owner). Bapi is a pleasant fellow who asks, "how did you get this number? You're not a coffee shop? You just want to buy a couple bottles? Well, okay, I happen to be in the office today, but I'm only going to be here for another hour, so hurry over. We're not open to the public, so give me a call and I'll let you in the front door." We met Bapi - he showed us the original 5 gallon pot where he started crafting his chai and flavored syrups. Then he showed us the 20 gallon pot he used when production was in his apartment, then he showed us the industrial-size sink he wielded together to turn into a pot because 25 gallons was becoming too small. "I couldn't keep up. Once people discovered the syrup, they wanted more and more. I still can't keep up with demand. I sell to 400 stores and more every day, but look around - I have no inventory. Also, I refuse to take anyone's money, so all of this equipment and supplies are paid for in cash." He showed us the big 1000 (2000?) gallon drum that he's using now, and explains that he's moving into a bigger facility in Salem, OR where he can hopefully impress some bigger customers to start producing under their brand.
What a great little shop. My Chai is definitely going places, we're excited to have gotten a behind-the-scenes warehouse tour before it gets too popular. Bapi is a great guy. He's a former software engineer who, one day, decided he wanted to do something different. He's very excited about his product. He laughed when I told him where I work, but was very gracious!
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Inclement = Bitter, Nasty
I have used the word inclement for many years, not really knowing what it meant. Is it a happy euphemism for "rainy"? I don't know. So finally I thesaurus.com-ed it and discovered that it means "Bitter and Nasty." That makes a lot of sense, but why don't we call it what it is? If my flight gets canceled, I would rather it be because of life-threatening "bitter and nasty" weather conditions, not because of something that sounds like a geriatric medical condition. Think about it...
Sunday, December 21, 2008
Snow Days
It has been snowing non-stop in Tacoma for the last two days. Everything is beautiful and white! We took Jude out into the back yard so he could experience his first snow fall. Rob had to throw snowballs at Jackson because he knew it would be more acceptable than throwing them at Jude. He can wait until next year for that.
Jude's first time in the snow
What a cute little snow bunny
Here are a few photos of the street in front of our house. (Snow1, Snow2, Snow3) We've probably got about a foot of accumulated snow. Rob enjoyed driving up the street, swerving in the snow to Starbucks (by himself, without Jude). He said it was like driving in a snowmobile. (Jeanne said Chris and Josh had the same idea down in Portland). Speaking of which, we've seen our neighbors literally driving their snowmobiles and skiing up and down the streets in the area. What a fun and strange change from Texas!
Jude's first time in the snow
What a cute little snow bunny
Here are a few photos of the street in front of our house. (Snow1, Snow2, Snow3) We've probably got about a foot of accumulated snow. Rob enjoyed driving up the street, swerving in the snow to Starbucks (by himself, without Jude). He said it was like driving in a snowmobile. (Jeanne said Chris and Josh had the same idea down in Portland). Speaking of which, we've seen our neighbors literally driving their snowmobiles and skiing up and down the streets in the area. What a fun and strange change from Texas!
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
'Tis the Season ... to Have a Baby
Ho Ho Ho, Kids!
And congratulations to Chris and Jeanne. Their ETA is June 17th. And congratulations to Tim and Sara on finding out they're having a boy. Their ETA is March 30th. Anyone else want to announce anything?
And congratulations to Chris and Jeanne. Their ETA is June 17th. And congratulations to Tim and Sara on finding out they're having a boy. Their ETA is March 30th. Anyone else want to announce anything?
Saturday, December 06, 2008
Oh Christmas Tree
We finally got to use our roof rack! It's only been a year since we got it...
Here's what the tree looked like afterwards...
Here's what the tree looked like afterwards...
Friday, December 05, 2008
The Things Kids Do To You
I have an altered perception of reality now that I am the father of a three-month old. Everywhere I look I see children. And they're all cute. In the mornings I walk by our company's daycare center. I call it the "baby terrarium" since the facility is encased in windows to the public on one of its sides. You can view inside and watch a half dozen bald headed babies sitting in a circle waiting to plop over on their sides at any moment. It's adorable. Then again, I also see pictures of little kids in the wrong place at the wrong time in this world - whether they're hurt on the streets of Pakistan or in suburban Cincinnati. I see them through different eyes these days, and it's terribly painful the things forced upon them. I picture Jude when I see them; it hurts. I don't mean to be a downer ... all I'm saying is, you see children in a different way when you have your own child.
A few years ago, a guy said to me as soon as I had children, I'd vote a certain way and move to the suburbs like all the other parents. I don't think I'd go that far (I'm still anti-suburb), but I do agree that your perception of life changes when you're the guardian and "god" to a little human.
A few years ago, a guy said to me as soon as I had children, I'd vote a certain way and move to the suburbs like all the other parents. I don't think I'd go that far (I'm still anti-suburb), but I do agree that your perception of life changes when you're the guardian and "god" to a little human.
Monday, November 24, 2008
Socialism. The New Consumerism
Consumer spending just may be the thing that takes America over the cliff to socialism. The stars are aligned. After 8+ years of single-party dominant control of the three branches of government (6 years in legislative, 8 years in executive, and 219 years in judicial), the American people are already beginning their cognitive transition.
Consider these seemingly unrelated sub-plots (like a Tom Clancy novel!):
Today there are 8,430 FDIC insured banks in America. Over 8000 of these banks are pretty small and you’ve probably never heard of them. Some have failed or have been forced to consolidate, but study this frightening list of big banks and institutions that failed or were forced to merge or accept government supervision: Countrywide Bank, Washington Mutual, IndyMac, Freddie, Fannie, Merrill Lynch, Bear Sterns, Wachovia, Lehman Brothers, National City, AIG. Those are not small main street banks. Those are the biggest of the big banks (and financial services co’s) in America.
Small banks, statistically speaking, are doing fine. Why? Their biggest credit exposure: commercial real estate. And they offer the same level of FDIC insurance to you as “big safe 100 year old Wall Street banks.” Meanwhile, consider the biggest of the big banks’ exposure: multi-billion dollar credit default swaps, equity derivatives, collateralized debt, securitization of all sorts of bizarre consumer debt, LBOs, SIVs, commercial paper, and credit cards. When Argentina defaults on its debt again (just a matter of time), the big banks will be hardest hit because their globally diversified portfolios have fingers in risky sovereign debt as well. Following this logic, last week we hear about Citibank losing investors. Investors see few deposits and few tangible assets compared to their illiquid assets (worthless assets), liabilities, and ever-increasing allowances for bad debt.
The biggest institutions are the riskiest. Therefore, expect investors to catch on and to see more failures in the largest names of finance. This includes banks (like Citi, Morgan Stanley), credit providers (like American Express, GMAC, GE), and insurance companies (like Met Life, Hartford, Prudential, Lloyds).
Our current situation can be traced to just one bankruptcy (Lehman Brothers on September 15th). Imagine if some of these other firms declared bankruptcy. Due to the miracle of credit default swaps (my favorite derivative), trillions of dollars of “default insurance” will be paid on the few billions of dollars of debt that those companies held. Then as those “default insurance” companies go bankrupt, the remaining “default insurance” companies will go bankrupt, until no large banks and insurance companies exist!
Still following? … Okay, so imagine you’re the government, and you saw what happened when you let just one “too big to fail” bank fail (Lehman Brothers). You’ll say, “We can’t let any more financial institutions like that go bankrupt, or the country will be sunk back to the stone-age.” Remember, as the financial system goes, so go jobs, so go bankruptcies, so go prices, so go tax revenues, so goes the ability of the country to pay off its debt, and so goes the US Bond (the “risk free rate” is now very risky). World financial markets melt, WW III shortly thereafter.
Faced with two bad options, what would you do? 1) Begin the large-scale takeover of American industry (starting with finance and insurance, then auto, then housing, then retail), or 2) Allow the US to go bankrupt like Iceland. Now note the first paragraph of this blog post: If ever there was a political party to chose option 1, it is the incoming administration. So the chess board has already been set. It’s just waiting for things to fall into place. Republicans will initially fight it or passive-aggressively “find it interesting that our country is moving closer towards European-style socialism,” but their initial hesitation will be weighed against the tidal wave of increasing job losses and bankruptcies (each contributing to the other in a really vicious circle). It won’t be long before hospitals and health care companies (like Humana, Aetna, Kaiser) go bankrupt as health care subscribers default on their health debt. The government will gallantly ride to the rescue of consumers, socializing the health care industry, and providing us with pretty decent health care. Incidentally, our aggregate average life expectancy will probably increase, but you’ll hear sad stories about how the government declined to pay for an 85 year-old’s $1M lung transplant.
In the near-term, personal bankruptcy will not be a social stigma, but an accepted reality. It will be really hard for Americans to lose their “stuff.” Heck, it will be hard for me to lose my stuff. I love my stuff. I love my house and my new dishwasher. But we’ll all get used to the brave new world order. Don’t worry, as long as you have your health and your love ones. We can all live off of soup and bread for a few years :-)
Consider these seemingly unrelated sub-plots (like a Tom Clancy novel!):
Today there are 8,430 FDIC insured banks in America. Over 8000 of these banks are pretty small and you’ve probably never heard of them. Some have failed or have been forced to consolidate, but study this frightening list of big banks and institutions that failed or were forced to merge or accept government supervision: Countrywide Bank, Washington Mutual, IndyMac, Freddie, Fannie, Merrill Lynch, Bear Sterns, Wachovia, Lehman Brothers, National City, AIG. Those are not small main street banks. Those are the biggest of the big banks (and financial services co’s) in America.
Small banks, statistically speaking, are doing fine. Why? Their biggest credit exposure: commercial real estate. And they offer the same level of FDIC insurance to you as “big safe 100 year old Wall Street banks.” Meanwhile, consider the biggest of the big banks’ exposure: multi-billion dollar credit default swaps, equity derivatives, collateralized debt, securitization of all sorts of bizarre consumer debt, LBOs, SIVs, commercial paper, and credit cards. When Argentina defaults on its debt again (just a matter of time), the big banks will be hardest hit because their globally diversified portfolios have fingers in risky sovereign debt as well. Following this logic, last week we hear about Citibank losing investors. Investors see few deposits and few tangible assets compared to their illiquid assets (worthless assets), liabilities, and ever-increasing allowances for bad debt.
The biggest institutions are the riskiest. Therefore, expect investors to catch on and to see more failures in the largest names of finance. This includes banks (like Citi, Morgan Stanley), credit providers (like American Express, GMAC, GE), and insurance companies (like Met Life, Hartford, Prudential, Lloyds).
Our current situation can be traced to just one bankruptcy (Lehman Brothers on September 15th). Imagine if some of these other firms declared bankruptcy. Due to the miracle of credit default swaps (my favorite derivative), trillions of dollars of “default insurance” will be paid on the few billions of dollars of debt that those companies held. Then as those “default insurance” companies go bankrupt, the remaining “default insurance” companies will go bankrupt, until no large banks and insurance companies exist!
Still following? … Okay, so imagine you’re the government, and you saw what happened when you let just one “too big to fail” bank fail (Lehman Brothers). You’ll say, “We can’t let any more financial institutions like that go bankrupt, or the country will be sunk back to the stone-age.” Remember, as the financial system goes, so go jobs, so go bankruptcies, so go prices, so go tax revenues, so goes the ability of the country to pay off its debt, and so goes the US Bond (the “risk free rate” is now very risky). World financial markets melt, WW III shortly thereafter.
Faced with two bad options, what would you do? 1) Begin the large-scale takeover of American industry (starting with finance and insurance, then auto, then housing, then retail), or 2) Allow the US to go bankrupt like Iceland. Now note the first paragraph of this blog post: If ever there was a political party to chose option 1, it is the incoming administration. So the chess board has already been set. It’s just waiting for things to fall into place. Republicans will initially fight it or passive-aggressively “find it interesting that our country is moving closer towards European-style socialism,” but their initial hesitation will be weighed against the tidal wave of increasing job losses and bankruptcies (each contributing to the other in a really vicious circle). It won’t be long before hospitals and health care companies (like Humana, Aetna, Kaiser) go bankrupt as health care subscribers default on their health debt. The government will gallantly ride to the rescue of consumers, socializing the health care industry, and providing us with pretty decent health care. Incidentally, our aggregate average life expectancy will probably increase, but you’ll hear sad stories about how the government declined to pay for an 85 year-old’s $1M lung transplant.
In the near-term, personal bankruptcy will not be a social stigma, but an accepted reality. It will be really hard for Americans to lose their “stuff.” Heck, it will be hard for me to lose my stuff. I love my stuff. I love my house and my new dishwasher. But we’ll all get used to the brave new world order. Don’t worry, as long as you have your health and your love ones. We can all live off of soup and bread for a few years :-)
Saturday, November 22, 2008
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
New Dishwasher
Nothing major to note, just that we have a dishwasher and garbage disposal installed, thanks to Bob B. and his mad carpentry/electrical/pluming skills. We had gone about 7 months without a dishwasher (and 1.5 years w/o a disposal), so this is very big and exciting for us. (Photos soon)
Oh... and yes, we were following the election (Nov. 1st was our last blog post). And yes, it was very exciting and noteworthy! Here's a great political poll tracking website for future reference: five thirty eight.
Oh... and yes, we were following the election (Nov. 1st was our last blog post). And yes, it was very exciting and noteworthy! Here's a great political poll tracking website for future reference: five thirty eight.
Saturday, November 01, 2008
Halloween Pictures & Dr Visit
Jude had his two month pediatrician visit this last week. He got his vaccinations and let out one big yell before falling asleep for the ride home. What a good baby. We also got some stats on him:
Height: 23 1/4 inches
Weight: 12 lb 8 oz
Jude at 2 months old - full body shots
We had a low key Halloween. Jude was way against having his picture taken. But the next day, he was all smiles!
Our little pea in the pod
A few more pictures:
Close up of our little pea in the pod
Jude got a little sleepy
Saturday, November 1st. Jude is nine weeks old today and he likes to smile in the brief periods of time between eating and sleeping. It's hard to capture his really great smiles though - I think he knows the camera is going to flash bright lights at him.
9 weeks old and smiling
Another cute picture of Jude
Height: 23 1/4 inches
Weight: 12 lb 8 oz
Jude at 2 months old - full body shots
We had a low key Halloween. Jude was way against having his picture taken. But the next day, he was all smiles!
Our little pea in the pod
A few more pictures:
Close up of our little pea in the pod
Jude got a little sleepy
Saturday, November 1st. Jude is nine weeks old today and he likes to smile in the brief periods of time between eating and sleeping. It's hard to capture his really great smiles though - I think he knows the camera is going to flash bright lights at him.
9 weeks old and smiling
Another cute picture of Jude
Friday, October 17, 2008
Fall Fun and Corn Mazes
The leaves are turning, the air is cool and crisp, and the sun is still out. It is the best time of the year. We celebrated last weekend by taking Jude through his first corn maze. He did well and only got turned around a few times. He also learned a little bit about finance along the way... (sound odd? It's true, we found a corn maze that focused on financial education - Rutledge Corn Maze).
Jude getting ready for the maze - fueling up.
Rob and Jude at the maze entrance
Rachel needed a coffee break after the first half of the maze
Rob asks Jude about FDIC insured deposits (this was a trick question because they just raised the limit from $100k to $250k)
Jude getting ready for the maze - fueling up.
Rob and Jude at the maze entrance
Rachel needed a coffee break after the first half of the maze
Rob asks Jude about FDIC insured deposits (this was a trick question because they just raised the limit from $100k to $250k)
Monday, October 13, 2008
Smiling Jude
Jude has been smiling since we brought him home from the hospital, but usually he is either asleep or experiencing some gas... Yesterday Aunt Jeanne and Uncle Chris came by for a visit. After Jude was fed, Aunt Jeanne held him for a while and he looked into her eyes and started a smiling session that lasted for a good ten minutes. I captured a few of them once I came to my senses and grabbed our camera.
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