Danelle's Wedding

Congrats to Rob's sister, Dani, on her marriage to Adam. A couple of weeks ago, on a beautiful sunny day in Portland, the various families on Rob's side got together to celebrate and festivitize Dani and Adam. Dani's life story is almost Oprah-worthy. Truly inspiring. We love her and wish her and Adam the best in their new home in Longview, WA.

Mitch, Matt, and Nick entertaining guests as they arrive at the rehearsal. Rachel took this photo after telling them she wasn't going to take the picture "until you actually smile." This picture is probably my favorite. I can't help but smile.


We're excited to have a real picture (not a hand-out photo). And Rachel is doing very well, thanks for asking. She's six months along with little Jude and looking more like 3 months along!


A really great family photo courtesy of Adam and Dani's photo album. This is most of the tribe, but believe it or not there are more missing.

New Home

Rachel's mom once said you should separate major life changes by at least two years. But we think that's way to slow. Here's a link to the house we're buying. It closes June 10th.

Ode to Nau

I'm very sad to hear the news that upscale-urban outdoor retailer Nau has closed up shop only a year after opening. My good friend let us know on Friday that his job at the home office and all of his colleagues' jobs had been completely dissolved with less than 48 hours' notice. My friend introduced Rachel and me to Nau several months ago, and I immediately found their clothes to be perfect for my slender frame. Since then I've been one of their biggest patrons. As I look down at my extremely well manufactured Nau jacket and wool pants, I don't understand how the investors would allow Nau to simply stop production. It just doesn't make any sense. Where will I go now? North Face is so pedestrian, and all those clothing stores in the mall (ala Banana Republic & J Crew) have no personality and are made of extremely poor quality fabric for pear-shaped men.

Quick Nau highlights: start-up, investor money, lots of press, cult following, credit crunch, investor money stopped (huge missed opportunity & super dumb non-visionaries), cash flow = $0, 48 hour termination notices, very sad patrons, like canceling Seinfeld after the first season, big gap in the apparel world.

Tally-ho, Eh!

Last week Rachel was in London and Rob was in Vancouver. Yes, I know that seems strange since, a) we're no longer world travelers, and b) Rachel is five months pregnant. But, a) "it is what it is" (voted by USA Today as the #1 cliche of 2004), and b) we really had no choice. So we boarded our little Jackson, said our farewells to each other, and went our separate ways.

Rachel spent the 9 hour flight in business-class luxury - a necessity given her medical issue (child in belly). She arrived well-rested at Heathrow on Sunday morning, checked into a Sheraton near Trafalgar Square, and began a really enjoyable work-week. Besides meeting folks from the London office, Rachel reports eating lots of great food, including Starbucks, Pret a Manger, and Wagamama. Those lucky enough to live in American's Northeast already have access to those last two restaurants. Rachel was impressed by the healthiness and freshness of food in London. Whole juices, fresh veggies, and scrumptious meats seem to be more common over there than over here. We hope the trend makes it over to this side of the pond. Rachel reports hearing of some football matches in the area (Chelsea and Arsenal) and she made the time to find me (Rob) a snazzy slim-fit dress shirt with French cuffs... so of course she also had to get me a pair of cuff links. And I admit I'm very hooked to the English dress shirts. I've already found the company's website, priced it out, and am collecting my next order (Let me know if you want to go in with me on the "4 for 100 GBP" deal). Rachel also visited the Tower of London, where she took the following pictures:

Tower of London

Nice Flowers somewhere near St. James' Place

Tower Bridge


The day after Rachel's flight to London, Rob hopped in a taxi to Seattle's train station. Yes indeed, I took a train up to Vancouver. A new experience for me here in America. The Amtrak between Seattle and Vancouver was about four hours - roughly the same as driving to Vancouver, but without the long delay at the boarder. Once in Vancouver, I checked into the Kimpton and got to work for the next few days. Unfortunately I don't have as many snazzy stories as Rachel. I was slightly disillusioned from my long-held notion that Vancouver was sort of part of America. I heard my share of "American's take all of our energy" and "Canadian cattle was banned for two years!" and "America is our biggest trade partner" and the likes. I realized then and there that while Canadians act similarly to Americans, their world-view is probably more closely aligned to the British and even the Romanians than to Americans.

Did you just say Religion? Probably not, but I'll mention it anyway: I was impressed by Canada's personal convictions towards their Christian faith. When I explained my bizarre childhood of moving over 40 times (my dad was a church planter - someone who starts churches in new communities and shepherds them for a year or two before moving to another community), several different people started talking about the churches they attend, their parents who are pastors ("I'm a PK too!") and their brothers who are youth pastors. The fact that Canadians tend to view faith and Christianity more similarly to Americans than do the British or Romanians added to my metaphysical "what does it mean to be Canadian" dilemma .

While I sit and ponder the meaning of all of it, below are a couple of simple photos from my camera phone:

Downtown Vancouver (aka, Metropolis from Smallville)

Inukshuk statue (you'll see this in the 2010 Winter Olympics)

Springtime At Last

What a remarkable spring day - the finest day in Seattle since around October of last year. At last, the winter has passed! We made it! It's been a tough time these past five months, but today Rachel and I donned our short sleeve shirts and headed to Alki (northern tip of W. Seattle. We live in W. Seattle). Here are a couple pictures from our part of town. This is what our family and friends miss when they don't come visit :-)

Obligatory hold-out photo. We really need a camera tripod!

Little J loves the spring and summer. He's been packing some weight over the winter months due to our great antipathy towards walking in the winter rain.

Rachel with a teeny tiny view of the Olympic Mountains in the back. Over the summer we'll have more pictures of the Olympics and Cascades.

Another fun view of the Seattle skyline from W. Seattle. When Jackson and I ran to the end of the dock, he just about jumped in.

Just for kicks, I added this super cute photo of Rachel trying on an outfit for her trip to London. She totally looks like an Austin Powers stand-in.

Introducing Jude

Something big is on its way. Day by inexorable day, it grows bigger, stronger, more masculine, and less like a sea monkey. The “thing” is Jude Michal, our T-minus 21 week old little tiger taking shape inside Rachel’s cute little frame. ETA is 9/3/08. Those closest to us may already know, but today we’re announcing to the world the upcoming birth of our little baby boy.

The 411: Several months ago, Rachel admonished that while it felt like the time was right to start a family, my job – which literally required 90% travel – precluded us moving in that direction. Not only did I heed Rachel’s warning-slash-suggestion, but I did it quickly! About two months later I started a new job, and little “J” began his journey into this world. Over the next couple of months, we kept our little guy a secret from even our parents until nearly the end of the first trimester.

The last few months of our youth now quickly trickle away, but we couldn’t be any more excited. We’ve lived overseas in China and Romania, had a fantastic adventure in Austin and Houston, graduated from business schools, found exciting jobs up in Seattle / Tacoma, and we are now ready to take on the challenges and joys of parenthood.

Next week Rachel is taking Jude with her to London (Rob’s in Vancouver, BC the same week but that’s not as exciting). While in England, Jude will enjoy fish n chips, Pret a Manger, Starbucks (of course), and perhaps Jamie Oliver’s restaurant.

Our friends and family can be sure of more fun news and information as it occurs.

Coming Soon: The Next Big Thing

Introducing Jude, the next major topic of conversation in the Mardock family. Details to follow shortly.

Update: More details coming soon. We're very excited to have something new, unique, and exciting to talk about on our family blog. 7 out of 10 people will agree that it's a bigger deal than our Yorkie, Jackson.

1 Year Older, 2 Years Wiser

Tomorrow I turn 30 and old. Wo is me... Sigh... But enough of my pity party: here are two fun events from the past couple of weeks:
1) Star Wars Party
Chris is even older than I am. For his midlife moment he chose a Star Wars themed birthday party. Guess which characters we are. As always, Rachel looks cute even wearing a drape on her head and lipstick dots on her cheeks. I was trying not to smile, hence my goofy smirk.

Darth Maul Dip (we also made Bubble City Salad, Double Darth Dogs, Han Burgers, and Tie Fighter Somethings... Many better pictures available on Chris' blog)


2) Family Reunion in Medford
Rob and Rachel at Jeff & Desi's wedding. The family had a fun time reconnecting, including a special visitation from Andy and Joanne, in Oregon from Florida.

4 girls getting ready, with rare appearance by Joanne


We also visited Mitch, Kel, and the kids in Dallas (OR) but once again neglected to take meaningful photos. Just one snapshot of Kelleigh hopping into her Jeep ... not really "worth a thousand words."

1999 Flashback

Some fun OLD photos we found of our trip to China back in 1999:
Rob @ Tienanmen
Rachel in Xi'an
Group Photo with Buddha
Pictures borrowed from our sponsoring program, CCCU's CSP.

These photos go way back to the pre-millennial days when Rachel and I were just considering ourselves a couple. Very exciting and frightening at the same time. At the end of the semester, we figured if we could survive a relationship in China, we could survive a relationship anywhere. And that theory was strangely accurate: making a relationship work in the USA was so much easier! During the trip to China (Fall 1999), we spent most of our time in Xi'an, Hong Kong, Beijing, and Shanghai. We visited many other cities along the way.

Our favorite moments in China (in no particular order):
1) Top of the Jin Mao Tower in Shanghai
2) Trekking around Xi'an on the famurs "City Wall" (you're not suppose to go around the whole thing , but we did).
3) 37-hour train ride from Guangzhou to Xi'an
4) Horseback riding in Gansu Province
5) Tai Chi lessons (cloudy hands!)
6) Street food vendors (hepatitis on a stick)
7) Beijing: Great Wall and Rachel's 21st birthday bash (same day)
8) Beijing (Continued): Forbidden City, Summer Palace, Temple of Heaven, Ming Tombs, Silk Alley (which is now lame. No more "authentic" North Face copies. Now they're flagrantly "Noryth Face.")
9) Xi'an's Old District / Muslim Quarters / Terra Cotta Soldiers
10) Starbucks in Beijing. You wouldn't understand unless you lived in a developing country with little familiar around you, then one day seeing the blessed Green Mermaid in a window across the street after being away from home for 4 months.

Temporary Space Filler

Here are the only thoughts going through my head at this time:
1) My wife is really cute and smart. She works hard and I cherish the brief four hour window we see each other between 6:30pm and 10:30pm. I love getting ready for the day together (between 6:25am and 7:15am). And I look forward to us seizing the weekend with a trip to the mountains, downtown, Oregon, the beach, or even to a humble local coffee shop.
2) We like Jackson, our little 8-lb bundle of energy. No matter how long or tired our day was, Jackson always greets us with a supercharged tail wag, a few hops of excitement, and a low growly-gurgly roar.
3) I don't like to write about myself.

Real Estate Mess: Scapegoating

There must be no crisis, because everyone is convinced they didn't do anything. Why don't their Pollyanna attitudes make me feel warm and fuzzy? Greenspan, Bernanke, Bush, Century 21, mortgage brokers, appraisers, Countrywide, Moody's, FICO, WAMU, speculators, and my favorite: HGTV and "Flip That House," have all come out to say they were just victims of a systematic shift in the underpinnings of our socio-economic reality.

So if it's any consolation, I'm happy to take the blame. My bad. While Rachel and I were in Romania herding sheep and teaching their Gen Y to speak idiosyncratic American English, I was plotting a diabolical scheme to secretly signal to the Fed to keep interest rates low after the tech bubble burst and convincing banks to unload their liabilities into investment vehicles (CDOs) that people all around the world could buy in small "risk-free" chuncks (according to S&P), thereby aleviating the barriers to entry for sub-prime borrowers and creating a supersized proletariat uprising of home buyers and flippers - egged on by dreams of riches as promised by HGTV. As you can imagine, Rachel and I had quite a bit of extra time in the Peace Corps.

Online Investment Portfolio Optimizer Tool

If anyone knows where to find an online tool to optimize your investment portfolio, please send the link my way. I'm tired of guessing: "Hmm, I think I'll take 62% of Diversified Value Fund #3, 30% of International, and 8% of Bond Fund #A ... no Bond Fund B, yes! Now I'm diversified!"

For a company like Yahoo / Google Finance, Reuters, MarketWatch, etc, it would be super easy to develop one. Just enter the security ticker symbols (or if no ticket symbol exists, just enter a few assumptions about your asset), and voila - it tells you exactly what percentage of each asset to invest in to optimize your portfolio (the easiest way is to just maximize the sharpe ratio based on historical returns).

These companies already have the historical price information, from which you can calculate variance (risk), and return (reward). All they have to do is create an asset optimization function. This may sound like bizarre jargon, but I'm not a financial wiz and even I created an asset optimization function for up to 6 assets (my story in a previous post). Just have someone brighter than I make a function that incorporates more than 6.

Final thought: if this doesn't exist for free, then whichever company develops the investment optimizer tool first (it's super easy) will be rewarded by good press and TONS of money from users and advertisers. These do exist, but they either cost money and don't use historical information, or they do and they're closely guarded by Wall Street money managers (even though it isn't hard replicate!)

How Can We Get Your House?

A funny 82-yr old lady approached Rachel and me today while we ate our scrumptious goodies at the grocery store. Feeble yes, but also spry and with an ascorbic wit. She is the kind of person who feeds pigeons and talks about the good old days in the Great Depression, when everyone in her Minnesota town came together as a social collective to help one another. She mentions she lives alone in Alki (beach-front area of W. Seattle). She laments her lonely life and blesses us as our conversation is therapeutic to her soul. Eventually, after we pry ourselves away from a 30-second conversation that somehow stretched into 15 minutes, Rachel and I walk back out to the car where I tell Rachel, "the whole time she was talking at us, I thought to myself, 'how can we get her house!'"

Domino's Pizza Tracker

We have a new best friend - the Domino's Pizza Tracker. The other day we were tired, hungry, and possessed nothing in our fridge except eggs and mayo. Pizza sounded good, so we decided to give Dominos a chance. We're glad we did! You can now order your pizza online with:

1. all of the coupons right on the website, one click away,
2. an incredibly user-friendly pizza topping arranging tool thing (it's hard to describe), and
   
3. the ability to pay online with your credit card.

But the very best part of the experience was after you place your order. Domino's takes you to the "Pizza Tracker" where you watch your pizza being topped, baked, boxed, and delivered. Within 30 minutes of pushing [place order], and 10 minutes after the pizza tracker displayed "delivery," the pizza was at our front door. Amazing!

Image borrowed from T&S

Video Church

New trend, or just really bad luck?

In our "no surrender" battle to find a church in Seattle, today we stumbled into a second church where worshipers (hereby referred to as "spectators") stare blankly up at a big screen projection of a pastor's giant head - located 10 miles away at the "main campus." Even more oddly, the video feed wasn't live, but a playback from earlier in the morning. The A/V guy at the back of the sanctuary literally pushed the [play] button and the pastor's image appeared on the screen (with a little blue caption for a few seconds: DVD begin).

We were immediately disheartened, as a normal, traditional churchgoer might be. Is this not normal, or are we just really out of touch with modern evangelistic trends? For one, if we wanted to see a pastor's mug projected onto a screen, we would have stayed home and watched Joel Osteen in the comfort of our living room. For another, the entire purpose of church is to fellowship with other believers. Like Dietrich Bonhoeffer said from his Nazi jail cell (paraphrase): "you should be lucky to go to any church (you could be in jail like me)." Bonhoeffer emphasized the importance of fellowshipping in a church. But how can you truly fellowship when the people around you are agog, jaws open and eyes glazed over at the screen atop the stage? I dunno... I guess it works for some. For us - who don't consider ourselves spectators or voyeurs - it's back to square one in the church search. This experiences makes us understand why so many people don't go to church.

Churches in Seattle?

Do you know of a good church in Seattle? We thought we'd use our public blog to ask this important question. I know Seattle isn't known as a religious place, but over 3 million people live in the greater area - there's gotta be something here! We've lived here for about 8 months and have visited over a dozen churches. One very popular church we visited showed the pastor literally projected onto a screen (he was preaching from a remote location north of downtown). Another church we visited was way out of our comfort zone: shouting in tongues, people falling down, "spirit-led" laughter, and an indoor water baptism all in one hour. So we're feeling pretty isolated, and it isn't because we're not trying to integrate ourselves into the community.

We don't think of ourselves as picky people when it comes to churches, but maybe we are (?) ... We're just trying to find a church where they teach and study the bible - not preach a topical message that applies to a select downtrodden few and ends up turning the Good News into a therapy session.

Finding a church is hard when you're new to the area. Too many churches have denominational and philosophical baggage. We love the following churches. They are alive, hip, not lame, and not a tacky production:

• Medford, OR: Trail Christian Fellowship, Applegate Christian Fellowship, Rogue Valley Fellowship
  
• Portland, OR: River West Church, Athey Creek Christian Fellowship
  
• Austin, TX: Gateway Church
  

Politiking

Why are our presidential candidates decided by random people in Iowa and South Carolina? That's lame. Obviously, the same goes with the general election. Why are our presidents only elected by people in Ohio and Florida? The electoral college and primary systems are really, really ... really, super lame. I think the democratic processes in China and Iran are more transparent. This isn't a political statement, just an observation.

To Me, Christmas Means...

Family _ Fellowship _ Coffee _ Food _ Drama (ask Chris for endoscope pics) _ Giving more than you receive (negative cash flow) _ Board games _ Rescue Christmas CD _ Crowds _ Activities _ Anticipation

Every year, Christmas means something slightly different. When I was younger, my dad and uncle stomped on the roof yelling, "ho! ho! ho!" to signal the advent of the blessed day of gift receiving. If only we could maintain that same level of excitement - but alas the older you get, the more other attributes of Christmas move to the forefront (like board games and coffee):

Pressos. A fantastic little manual espresso device. You can only find these on eBay now. Jeanne and Chris influenced Rob and Rachel to get one, who influenced Katherine and Jerrod to get one (not shown here). Andy and Joanne have the third one shown.

Chris says it better than I can explain

Rachel and Jackson with Mike and Laura's Yorkshires (Murphy and Abbie)

Andy, home from Florida, shows the love

An Unsettling Trend

This blog's gradually decreasing number of posts has unsettled more than a couple family and friend voyeurs. Rachel and I recognize this. We see an unsettling trend between busyness at work and number of compelling things to write about. We'll try to write more fascinating tales of our lives as they arrive (including, possibly a Christmas update?), but in the meantime, here are a couple of deep thoughts to ponder:

Deep Thought # 1: Maybe we should praise single motherhood and teenage pregnancy. Brittney's little sister's bun in the oven should be a celebration, not a scandal. I applaud anyone with the conviction and grit to bring a new baby into this world in spite of the cultural climate that tolerates terminated pregnancies over actual childbirth. Maybe I'll write to James Dobson and tell him he needs to convince religious leaders to preach tolerance and celebration of prostitots and their big bellies. For another reason, the natural (non-immigration) US birthrate is very low, and the more children we have, the better off will be our future economy. The next time you see an unwed teenage mother, give her a high-five. Think of the many times more numerous teenagers (and their parents) who believe shame trumps a baby.

Deep Thought # 2: I'm disturbed by the trend of parents to teach their children to "do what you want" and "follow your heart." As a result, little kids decide they want to be artists, musicians, bartenders, counselors, and sociologists. At the same time, children in India and China are influenced by their parents to become needed. Science and math take a little extra effort, and children need to be encouraged by their parents to look harder at these "hard skill" classes.

Here's a secret, until I was in college, I wanted to be a musician and a teacher. I was going to be the best band director in Texas, and my loving parents encouraged me to be the best director I could be. But the world is a tough and competitive place. I analyzed the future and realized it probably wasn't what was best for me or my future family. Several years later, I'm an analyst. Rachel's an analyst too! As a kid, who says, "I want to be an analyst when I grow up!" But the truth is, it's very cool indeed! Rachel and I get to look at numbers and tell stories with them. Those stories influence business leaders and change processes and strategy.

My prayer is this - that parents will teach their children to do what is best for society, for America, or for their future families. Not necessarily for what children think is the most fun or the easiest path to a mediocre level of success. Be patriotic! Teach your kids to love math, science or a trade!

Final Thought: Not a deep thought, but based on last night's results from Iowa, I think it would be totally rad if the presidential race was between Obama and Huckabee / McCain. It would be the first time in my brief existence that I would be excited no matter who won!
(See Chris, we keep telling you that we're "independent" not "liberal")

Family Festivities

Rob and Rachel like to think of themselves as extreme weekend warriors (in a cosmopolitan way). Until the moment when our family expands by a kid or two, we have tried to see as much of the world as possible. Although Seattle has been home for only six months, we've seen more of the greater Puget Sound area than many locals. We have been known to plan and execute weekend trips to Dallas, Oregon after a five minute discussion. October and November have been no exceptions. We managed to pack an absurd amount of activities into eight small weekends including 1 trip to Tampa to see Andy and Joanne, 1 trip to Houston to see Katherine and Jarrod, 1 "Octoberfest" weekend that included bratwursts and a corn maze in Woodinville, 1 lazy weekend of family photos (Photogenic Family), 1 trip to the Oregon coast for Rachel's grandparents' 60th anniversary, 1 birthday weekend for Rachel, and 1 upcoming Mardock Family Thanksgiving Extravaganza (pictures in a week or so) in beautiful Porterville, CA. Below are a selection of pictures and links to pictures from the past few weeks.

Andy and Joanne recently moved to Tampa, FL for a big promotion. We visited them a few weeks ago and saw Myakka State Park (closer than the Everglades). Below, we're crossing a "canopy walk" in the trees. We also saw gators, wild pigs, and about a hundred hungry turkey vultures. We also visited the Tampa Bellamy's favorite coffee shop, Sumatra Coffee, and enjoyed a great iced mocha. Late night the next day we visited a highly rated coffee shop close to USF with the worlds most expensive coffee. I won't revel the name, but I did submit a clever review here. In addition to coffee, Andy, Joanne, Rachel, and Rob intricately carved pumpkins for a few hours and ate very good BBQ at a local dive. Fun times all around. If you're wondering what to do one weekend, go visit Andy and Joanne in Tampa. I'm sure they would be happy to have visitors.

Canopy Walk, leading to a scary-high observation tower

• View from the scary-high observation tower. Rachel felt dizzy
• Myakka pictures: guidebook to Myakka, Andy with four of the hundred turkey vultures, Rob and Rachel posing, gator and marsh
• Very Amazing Carved Pumpkins, part 1 and part 2
• Andy and Joanne torture their cat - graphic image
• Sumatra Coffee in Tampa

A couple of weeks later, Rob and Rachel visited their good friends in Houston. Below are Katherine, Jerrod, Ryan, and Rachel. We also saw Jude, Suzy, Ejituru, and Zach. It was exciting to be back in our home of two years. It always feels strange when you return after a long time. Like everything will have somehow changed. But the only change was that Rachel and I felt a big warm fuzzy inside for being back "home."

The best part about Houston is the people

• Corn maze and kettle corn, part of our little "Octoberfest"

Obligatory beach photo at Yragui 60th anniversary (Rob's always the one taking the picture)

• Jackson has hops, at the beach
• Desi and Jeff - recently engaged - at the Yragui reunion. Congratulations!

Rachel turned one year the same a couple of weeks ago, and family from the Bellamy and Mardock side came over to say hello. Unfortunately, Rob's habit of taking candid snapshots reveals none good enough to post here (unless you want to see a photo of Chris tormenting Jackson with a party favor).

• Rachel's birthday weekend - a trip to Stumptown's new Seattle location

Jeanne made the amazing spice cake from the recent Sunset Magazine cover

Photogenic Family

About five years after our last family photo (from Romania), we finally broke down and took more. Here's one of about fifty poses. To maintain the sanctity of Christmas gift-giving, we're withholding the rest for the time being. In a couple of days we'll post many more pictures of our recent trips to Tampa, Houston, and the Halloween corn maze!

The Economics of Wastefulness

The price you pay for everything is too cheap. Gas should be $10 per gallon, homes should be constructed to last 100 years, and Happy Meals should provide kids with food only, not with a plastic toy.

I’ve had this reoccurring thought for the past several years about how the basic commodities that make up our stuff are too cheap for the benefits they provide. Land, wood, oil and gas, milk, etc. Imagine 300 years from now, when oil is as rare as a Chupacabra, how much they would be willing to pay for a gallon of gas that today costs $3. Likely they would pay upwards of $100 or even $500 a gallon (adjusted for inflation). How annoyed would they be, knowing that we wasted millions of gallons of high-quality gasoline on NASCAR.

I believe managers and policy makers diminish the importance of resources in their financial analyses. Perhaps they should add an additional discount for a factor I call “what would people 300 years from now pay for this.” When performing NPVs and cost-benefit calculations, analysts should be concerned not only about the current market’s supply and demand curve, but future generations’ as well.

The wastefulness of resources is especially a problem in the housing industry. Since post WW-II, new homes last for only about 20 years before they become unfashionable and torn down for more fashionable 20-year house. Isn’t it a waste that all of those materials were mined, chopped down, or chemically composed for a 20-year house? But the problem of wasteful economics is prevalent in all industries. Pizza companies, oil companies, car companies, you name it. The main concern with business leaders is providing the cheapest product at the highest margin the current market will accept. Little concern is given to future generations and how they would much rather use that barrel of chemicals not to create Happy Meal toys, but to create a future power turbine (or maybe a Star Trek phaser).

This is a topic that could easily be developed into a doctoral thesis. So many areas of this theory to explore. Here’s another tangent: Saudi Aramco (biggest, scariest oil company of them all) has reached a point of inflection in its oil extraction rates. Saudi oil production is decreasing, not increasing (as our population and demand is increasing)…

Three Clever Sites

1) Pandora Radio (www.pandora.com) "Create your own radio stations."

This is especially important if you live in Seattle, Houston, or other cities with miserable radio stations. Pandora asks you to "create" a radio station by asking for a song or artist. Then, based on clever algorithms, it plays you a whole string of similar songs. If you don't like one of the songs it plays, you can give it a "thumbs down," and your station grows smarter. I currently have 6 stations. I've found "Coldplay Radio" and "Jack Johnson Radio" to offer wonderful suggestions. I'm still working to perfect "Muse Radio" because Pandora seems to think Muse is related to some pretty wacky stuff. One opportunity for Pandora is to allow listeners to cater their musical tastes to attributes other the sound of the song. For instance, a station that only plays music from the Mid-Atlantic or Northwest. Likewise, my "Caedmon's Call Radio" station doesn't play other CCM music - it actually attempted to play Shakira!

2) FlightStats (www.flightstats.com) "Flight data galore"

Truly the best flight data website in existence. Before you book your flight - or before you go to the airport, check out FlightStats to find out reliability of your route, flight, airport, etc. Chris (brother-in-law) works on FlightStats and promises that its current functionality is merely the beginning. Great things are on the horizon for this project. I want to buy into that company's IPO. Check out Chris' post on FlightStats (I commented about how it saved my day last week).

3) Wayback Machine (www.archive.org) "You are what you write."

I've admonished my little bro's and sisters that what they write on their social networking sites are published forever on the information superhighway. The Wayback Machine is easy proof of this. Wayback has literally archived the internet. Enter a website you want to see from 2002 and it will show you. See what Banana Republic was selling last year. One fun hour was spent reliving Enron. Check out its progression from the 1990s websites until the day before the company's collapse. Note the company news that says Jeffrey Skilling is leaving Enron, but "it's all okay. Enron is a solid company." What a hoot!

A Fun September

Camping with the Bellamy girls includes, among other things, full-service espresso drinks.
Chris working his stovetop milk frother:

Jeanne working her espresso Presso:


Recent trip to Leavenworth, WA (cute Bavarian town in the Cascades).
Rob's favorite people, Rachel and Jackson:

Jackson's favorite driving position:


Rob and Rachel's 6th anniversary at Cannon Beach, OR.
Our oceanfront lux view from the Stephanie Inn:

Stephanie Inn from the beach. Our room is 2nd floor, first room on the right of the middle.

Subprime Meltdown

The most important Socrates quote worth remembering may be “the more I know, the more I know I don’t know.” In the spirit of this sage advice, I proudly admit my ignorance when it comes to interest rates, credit management and derivatives, and debt securities. I want to know. It’s all very fascinating. I’ve found the recent “credit crunch” news to be especially interesting.

An interesting byproduct of the subprime meltdown / “credit crunch” is that, once again, we see just how interconnected the financial markets are. We see how increased credit availability popularized HGTV and home flippers (my parents) who increased the price of homes, which makes home ownership impossible for anyone except prior home owners (see previous post), which caused home prices to drop, which impacted subprime borrowers and their reverse amortization mortgages, which impacted credit availability, which impacted buyout firms (who else would buy Chrysler) and hedge funds, which is impacting your 401(k) (especially if you’re a teacher or firefighter), which is contributing to lower sovereign debt ratings of Romania and Argentina, which will impact a simple Transylvanian peasant trying to make a living raising chickens, which will cause the price of poultry to increase, which may contribute to world hunger, suffering, World War III, and the end of this common age. Pretty fascinating!

Financial markets and investment product complexity reached new heights during the 1990s boom years. As the market began to cool and plummet following the tech bubble burst, investment managers took their money elsewhere. Since every segment of the economy was suffering, managers began to invent new ways of seeking alpha. If managers couldn’t rely on tried and true methods of earning returns on their investments, maybe they could print their own money. Enter the arcane world of financial derivatives, credit, securitization, and the ills we find ourselves in today. Suddenly debt became a much more interesting possibility as post pet.com level equity returns leveled off.

Debt could be a way to keep growth alive. But where to start with debt? Real estate! Real estate is tangible – so much more tangible than a dot-com with fictional cash flow. People need a home. Shelter is a basic need. It’s inelastic. People will fork over anything for a place to sleep. But the demand for a $100,000 home is limited by the number of qualified borrowers. The private sector, realizing that growth is everything, asked a pivotal question: “how can we increase demand?” Answer: increase the number of borrowers. Take away those unpatriotic barriers to home ownership. Credit problems? Bankrupt? No job? No documents? No problem.

But the banks and mortgage lenders themselves knew it was a problem. They didn’t want to take on these risky loans. Wall Street was one step ahead of them. Securitization: pooling assets together (like home loans), putting a bow on it, and selling it to someone else. This type of security would be dubbed a Collateralized Debt Obligation (the home is the ‘collateral’). CDOs would allow banks and mortgage companies to unload their risky loans onto Wall Street, who would then sell them to hedge funds and money managers. Now more home owners took out loans to “flip that house” to earn a quick $100K, and suddenly that $100,000 home is $500,000. CDOs were a great way to diversify a portfolio: non-equity securities with equity-like returns. When those really bad loans on the bottom of the CDOs went into foreclosure, the CDOs began to lose value. When the CDOs lost value, hedge funds lost value, and totally non-related industries and securities lost value.

Now the financial markets are extremely volatile. Disney’s short-term commercial paper is worth less than it was one month ago, and last week, investors were demanding more of Countrywide’s commercial paper than it cost Countrywide to service its own debt. In essence, its asset became a liability.

Experts with less foresight than I predict that home prices will “level off sometime in the near future.” But homes aren’t like stocks. You can’t buy back homes and add value like Intel can buy back stock to add value to other stockholders. You need a liquid market to accurately price something. But if there is no market to buy homes, why would anyone pay $800,000 for a poorly constructed stucco track house (with hardwoods and granite counters mind you). Home prices will continue to decrease because people simply can’t afford a home. No more free money and no-document mortgages.

The media will tell you home prices decreasing is a bad thing, but if you take yourself away from the drama of the situation, it’s clear that one can’t expect home prices to continue to increase indefinitely when inflation-adjusted median income is stagnant or decreasing. When income and the things you buy with that income go in different directions, and there’s no credit (fake money) to fill the void, you can expect that home price to keep decreasing until poor people like Rachel and myself can finally afford it. In the meantime, that lack of credit is hurting completely unrelated people like the chicken farmer in Romania. It’s true! Because of HGTV, home flippers, Wall Street, lax regulation, and myopic policymakers, that Romanian chicken farmer can honestly no longer afford the cost of credit to allow him to increase capacity or buy an apartment. He’s probably considered a subprime borrower anyway…

Summertime in the NW

So many things to do, so little time. Washington has a plethora of fun day trips, and we mostly just have the weekends to experience as many as possible before rainy season comes our way. The other week, the Mardock gang (Mardocks / Steeles / Ratzlaffs) descended upon Whidbey Island for a weekend at Camp Casey. A few decades ago, the US military sold off Camp Casey to the highest bidder - Seattle Pacific University. As an administrator at SPU, Rob's uncle reserved a weekend in the swanky "Colonel's House" for a reunion.

The other main event of the summer was Andy and Joanne's wedding and move. We had a great time saying "welcome to the family" and "don't let the door hit you on the way off to Tampa" all within the same month. The Bellamy clan (Woods / Mardocks / Bellamys / Forbes) celebrated their departure at Chris and Jeanne's place where once again, Jeanne created some Sunset Magazine-worthy deserts.

Snoqualmie Falls

Rachel, Andrea, Kelleigh, Grant, Colonel's House at Camp Casey on Whidbey Island

Jackson, Rob, Dad & Deception Pass (Whidbey Island)

Jeanne and her famurs turtle cheesecake (Andy's smiling mug in background)

Alternative Nation

I'm feeling a little bamboozled, having now moved to what many consider to be the alternative rock capital of the world, only to discover that Seattle radio stations contain a dearth of my much needed musical sustenance.

Enter the most self-proclaimed ambasadors of the alternative rock capital of the world:
103.7: Claims to play "world class rock." Emperically, most songs belong in the same genre as "I Can See Clearly Now the Rain is Gone, Pave Paradise & Put Up a Parking Lot," and the newest and lamest Dave Matthews songs available, such as "Beautiful Baby and Stand Up."

107.7: Plays 8 hours of music, 8 hours of commercials, and 8 hours of morning, mid-day, and afternoon DJ tomfoolery. The topic of conversation the other morning was a Swiftian diatribe about how legalizing prostitution would bring about a more stable family unit.

90.3: What I like to call "Myspace Radio." Music so random and bizarre, my simple words can't describe it. Poetry reading to an African drum beat, followed by a hard core punk / ska trio. Tollerable jazzy tunes mixed throughout.

What Seattle lacks in music, it makes up for in dialogue. Not even in Houston, where every station is owned by Clear Channel, have I heard as much small-talking, questioning, answering, pondering, and laughing as I hear in Seattle.

The best alternative radio station in the country may be 94.7 in Portland, OR. Check out their website, where you can listen no matter where you live. (I requested a Ben Folds song when I lived in Houston). Austin, TX also has a truly world-class alternative rock station (101.5).

Mr & Mrs Belldar

We wish many happy nights (and days) to Andy and Joanne. Their vows exchanged, Andy and Joanne are off to an exciting start as a married couple. Their wedding was one of the most fun we've been to - and not just because it was family. (Any wedding that avoids "Celebration" and "YMCA" automatically earns bonus points). The greatness was due to the combination of great weather, low-key environment, excellent food / cake / beverages, and great conversations with over a hundred down-to-earth cool people. We were both thrilled to have no responsibilities other than looking nice and socializing.

Zany Bellamys: Brecia, Heather, Jeanne, Rachel, Andy.

Good looking couple and Pastor Rick

Starter Home Blues

A quick back of the envelope calculation reveals that virtually no one can afford a home. Below is the average household, but with no children. Both working adults are young, receive health insurance, and have no student loans. In other words, the most "financially ideal average household."
All in very gross approximations:

Average household salary:	$60,000
Less 25% Federal Tax:	$45,000
Less state tax & SS:	$40,000
Monthly Equivalent	$3,333
Less food, gas, insurance,
utilities, etc.	$1,600

That leaves the average household with about $1,600 to a) save for retirement (experts suggest young workers max out their 401(k) limits, currently $15,500 / yr or $1,300 / month), a child, life insurance, coffee addiction, a rainy day, and b) pay monthly mortgage payments.

Say the misses wakes up one morning and - taking my father's advice - says, "I think I'll make more money. Yes, I think ... yes, that's what I'll do. Make more money." Her boss, agreeing with her sound logic, increases her income 133% to $60,000. With their household income now at $100,000, well above the 25th percentile of all American households, this fictitious family should have no trouble affording a home. Unfortunately, because the family is young (or because they were stuck in the Peace Corps for two years) and this would be a first home purchase, the couple still cannot afford a house in the hyper-inflated market.

If any young couple wishes to buy a home where they work (not move to Porterville or Detroit to pursue a career in home flipping), then it takes superstar circumstances: income in the top 10% of all Americans, rich parents donating 10% for a down payment, or buying a home and renting out the downstairs to a random family from Craigslist. This is not the way our parents or grandparents experienced first-time home buying. For many of them, the difficulty of buying a $450,000 first home is inconceivable because they are already sitting on an $800,000 track home.

On a similar vein, Rachel and Rob find it tragically amusing that home sellers can't seem to find anyone to buy their $500,000 nondescript homes with hastily installed granite counters and hardwood. We know that the intrinsic value of the home is probably closer to $200,000, and that the other $300,000 is "entitlement equity." If you want your home to sell, don't lower the price by $10,000, lower it by $150,000. That's still a reasonable return on investment.

Open House

We are happy to finally post pictures of our furnished house. Granted, collecting furniture hasn't been a priority over the past few years, but do note the groovy rugs we found at the Pottery Barn outlet in San Marcos (TX). The upstairs "master bedroom" (not pictured here) is still a work in progress due to the bizarrely constructed 1940s staircase that prevents shimmying up anything bigger than a bookshelf.

Couch from Austin-American Statesman.com, rug from Pottery Barn outlet, coffee tables from Craigslist. So everything together is like 50 bucks.

We have cable tv, the first time ever (except in the Peace Corps ... in Eastern Europe)

Out guest room, in many ways, is much nicer than our "master bedroom" which has no dresser.

Our dining room has a view of Puget Sound, Vashon Island, and Mt. Rainier.

Our retro bathroom ensures a fun and invigorating bathing experience.



Other than our home, I must say that we simply love our area - West Seattle. The other Sunday we visited the West Seattle Farmer's Market, picked up a glass of strawberry-lavender lemonade, a 4 lb. marionberry pie, some veggies, a bouquet of flowers, and samples of goat cheese. Above us stood the stunning, snow-capped Olympic Mountains, across the street one of 5 amazing local coffee shops (serving Stumptown and cupcakes). We feel very fortunate to be living in a resort-like community. If any of this sounds fun, come by and stay the night! We like company.

Mid June Update

...sort of tired these days. Rob just started his new job in Seattle and Rachel has started her new job in Tacoma. We live right in between. This still follows our "live where you work" anti-urban sprawl ideal - at least as much as possible. We've now realized that Jackson is a chub - an 8 lb yorkie is twice the size as a normal "teacup" yorkie. Jeanne is currently visiting us from Portland. Rachel and Jeanne made apple pies - we gave one to our neighbor as a "welcome to the neighborhood but in reverse" gift. Eric (the neighbor) had taken our mail and newspapers from our front porch last week so potential thieves wouldn't know we were gone. I just sent an e-mail to my old Peace Corps colleagues. I'm sure we're all making the world a better place in our own ways. I say that only half jokingly. The other half is serious - our team of volunteers was pretty fun, talented, and motivated. Back to our house: it smells much better. Yes, old houses have a bit of a funk. But nothing that those Pier 1 scenty-oily-sticks can't fix.

This Old House

A few days ago we said goodbye to our friends in Houston and boarded a plane for Seattle (special thanks to Katherine, Jerrod (visit their blog), Ryanne, and Jude for your help, encouragement, and party-planning skills). The movers had already come, packed, loaded up boxes and our cars. On the plane, sedated Jackson was a trooper. He didn't make a sound until we exited in Seattle. At which time he started squealing like a pig, reminding us that he hadn't gone to the bathroom in about 7 hours.

We are now officially Seattle residents. Home is ours for the next 13 months. It's tucked into the Fauntleroy area of West Seattle, between downtown and the airport. We have two extra bedrooms, an extra bed, and extra sleeping pads, so we hope our family and friends visit us often. Consider it Rob & Rachel's Bed & Breakfast. Caffe Ladro is just down the street, and we have a nice little view of Puget Sound, Vashon Island, and Mt. Rainier.

Photo tour of our new (rental) house:
White picket fence
Front door & yard
Side angle
Dining room
Living room
Another dining room angle
Cozy kitchen
Retro bathroom
Bedroom # 3 (office)
Master bedroom (loft)
Another master (loft) angle
Back patio
Back of house
View of Puget Sound

Winding Down in Texas

Rachel and Rob have lived, learned and grown much these past three years in Texas. Many new friends, coworkers, and classmates have enriched our lives considerably. We now move on to a new adventure in Seattle. The movers come tomorrow, the plane leaves the next day. A bit of uncertainty and excitement remain on the horizon. After five years living in Romania, Austin and Houston, we are now returning to our native Pacific Northwest. What a journey. Drum Bun!

Rice Graduation

Rob is done with grad school - here is proof:



(PS - Rachel was done with grad school back in 2005)